Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370 by Sam Davey
About this book :-
"Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370" by Sam Davey, Neil Gordon, Ian Holland , Mark Rutten , Jason Williams explains how "Bayesian statistics" were used to analyze data and estimate the most probable flight path of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 after its disappearance in 2014. The book presents a real-world case study where mathematics and probability directly supported one of the most complex aviation searches in history.
The authors describe how limited and uncertain data—such as "satellite communications", radar information, and aircraft performance models—were combined using "Bayesian inference". Advanced techniques like "particle filtering" helped update probabilities as new information became available, producing realistic search zones rather than single predicted paths. This probabilistic approach allowed investigators to manage uncertainty in a systematic and scientific way.
Written by researchers involved in the actual investigation, the book bridges theory and practice, making it valuable for readers in "applied mathematics", statistics, engineering, and data science. It demonstrates how mathematical modeling and decision-making under uncertainty can be applied to real-life problems, showing the power of "probability modeling" in high-stakes, data-limited environments.
Book Detail :-
Title:
Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370 by Sam Davey
Publisher:
Springer
Year:
2016
Pages:
124
Type:
PDF
Language:
English
ISBN-10 #:
9811003785
ISBN-13 #:
978-9811003783
License:
Creative Common
Amazon:
Amazon
About Author :-
The author
Sam (Samuel) Davey
is an experienced engineer and mathematician who has worked for the Defence Science and Technology Group in Australia on target tracking and sensor fusion and is a Visiting Research Fellow at the University of Adelaide. The authors of "Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370" are a team of Australian researchers with strong backgrounds in "applied mathematics", "statistics", "engineering", "data fusion", and "Bayesian analysis". "Sam Davey", "Neil Gordon", "Ian Holland", "Mark Rutten", and "Jason Williams" have all worked with Australia’s Defence Science and Technology Group, focusing on complex real-world tracking and estimation problems.
Book Contents :-
1. Introduction
2. Factual Description of the Accident and Available Information
3. The Bayesian Approach
4. Aircraft Prior Based on Primary Radar Data
5. Measurement Model and Satellite Communications
6. Aircraft Cruise Dynamics
7. Aircraft Manoeuvre Dynamics
8. Particle Filter Implementation
9. Validation Experiments
10. Application to the MH370 Accident
11. Ongoing Refinement
12. Conclusions
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